Blue Collar Scientist

Yesterday evening around rush hour, before the sun had set, I was being driven west on Dimond Ave. in Anchorage, and I saw a “UFO.”

Now, before I go on, I need to say this: I thought I knew what I was seeing the instant that I saw it, and I confirmed that impression by continuing to watch it until I got a better view. But it was such a compelling illusion that I begin to understand why those who do not think uncritically could buy into the idea of UFOs.

My UFO was sighted low to the horizon in the west, out in the direction of Mt. Spurr:

It was a clear day, and I could see as far as Spurr, and beyond. The UFO was a perfect saucer - disc-shaped, with a bump in the middle. The shape was much like this:

But these colors are wrong. My saucer was a dark gray, and there was a very bright sunglint on the “bump” in the middle of the saucer.

The saucer was almost hovering, moving slowly to the right (i.e., roughly to the north, but with an indistinguishable radial velocity, due to its distance). If the saucer was as far away as Mt. Spurr - several dozen miles - then it would easily be the size of a large mountain. But if it had been over the Inlet, it would merely be “big.” Like maybe the size of an airliner big.

So much for what it looked like.

Here’s what it actually was:

An airliner, of course. It was on approach to land at Ted Stevens International Airport in west Anchorage. The pilot was using the approach that flies over Pt. Woronzoff, coming in from the west, so that I was seeing the airliner almost head on. The massively bright sunglint made it difficult to make out the true shape of the object and just enhanced the suggestion that I was seeing a saucer with a big central bump. At the distance, and possibly due to the airliner’s attitude, I couldn’t make out engines on the wings, and I couldn’t see any tail structure due to the sunglint. The actual motion was mostly toward me, but because the runway was north of my latitude, the airliner appeared to be drifting sedately to the north.

Of course I understood all this instantly, because years of living in Anchorage have conditioned me to expect to see airliners on approach in that part of the sky. The only thing remarkable here was how circumstances combined to make the illusion especially compelling.

Let’s be clear about something: I’m an analytical guy. When I see something, I want to figure it out. When I figure things out the wrong way, I’m not proud - when my mistake becomes apparent to me, I revise my thinking and I move on. Also, I’m an astronomer - I’m used to seeing interesting things in the sky, and figuring them out, as sort of a hobby. For me, the process is what I like. I don’t really care where I end up, as long as the process maintains its integrity.

But I know people - and I suspect you do to - who are not that way. They are quite proud. They are convinced they are smarter than average, and perceptive to boot, even though their statements and behavior leave the impression they are mentally dull and about as observant as a jellyfish. They have no culture of “figuring things out” that guides them in their thinking. But they do have a culture in which being wrong about something is a terrible outcome - probably brought on by being raised in a family that viewed wrongness much as a shark views blood in the water. These people are prone to making mistakes, and have a strong incentive to defend their initial conclusions, even if they are false, since “being wrong” results in censure and social consequences.

I think if one of these people had seen my “UFO,” and had been convinced by its shape and slow apparent movement, we’d now be dealing with UFO reports in the Anchorage bowl.

A significant challenge for the skeptical movement is overcoming the incentives people have to avoid admitting they were wrong.